31
Why Would Anyone Fear a Self-Driving Car?
8年前To understand what the world will be like in ten years, it isn’t enough to look back at how different things were a decade ago and presume the differences will be comparable. The pace of technological change is speeding up so quickly, says Astro Teller, who leads the arm of Google that aims at “moonshots,” that one must look back 30 years to experience the same amount of discontinuity we’ll feel ten years hence.
A decade out, he continued, half of all cars on the road will be self-driving (and there would be more but for the fact that today’s cars are too expensive an asset to junk immediately).
The remarks took place Sunday at the Aspen Ideas Festival, which the Aspen Institute co-hosts with The Atlantic. And it prompted a question from moderator Andrew Ross Sorkin.
Trying to imagine a rapid shift toward self-driving cars, Sorkin wondered if the public would be ready as quickly as the technology. “Today there are 35,000 fatalities on the road using cars that we all drive just in the United States,” he said. “What number does that have to go down to that it becomes politically palatable, to the public, that they get in the car, and there may very well be a fatality as the result of a computer?”
In Teller’s view, we’re nearly there already.
“Almost every single person in this room already made that choice, because you got on a plane,” he told the Aspen crowd. “Planes fly roughly 99 percent of the miles that they fly by computer. It's now to the place that it is not safe for humans to fly in a lot of conditions. It's mandated that the computer fly because the computer can do it better.”
He posed this question to skeptics:
If you could have a robotic surgeon that makes one mistake in 10,000, or a human that made one mistake in 1,000, are you really going to go under the knife with the human? Really? We are already at that stage. I think self-driving cars are not in some weird other bucket. We make this decision all the time.
I suspect he is right, if only because more than half of young people already say in surveys that they look forward to self-driving cars, and the ubiquity of ride-sharing services with human drivers is already conditioning car passengers to give over more control. As a counterpoint, however, there are lots of Americans who choose to drive rather than fly, fearing the latter more despite knowing that it is statistically much safer.
With that in mind, I pose the question to readers who shudder at the thought of getting in a self-driving car, even after they are well tested and statistically safer than a car piloted by a human. Are you able to articulate what it is about the self-driving car that scares you? I fear sharks, despite the long odds against one biting me, because they are prehistoric sea monsters who rise up to unexpectedly bite people with razor sharp teeth. Dying by a combination of being eaten alive and drowning seems unusually scary. Why is getting in a self-driving car scarier than getting in a taxi?
The entire opening session of the Aspen Ideas Festival is below, with the Astro Teller interview starting at the 36-minute mark:
コメントするにはログインしてください。
コメント (15)
米国This is a really fascinating debate about the direction self-driving cars will travel. I absolutely agree with Astro Teller's observation that even robotic procedures and aircraft already allow us to be at ease with like technologies. The analogy definitely helps one to view things. Although some individuals would still be afraid of ceding authority, the potential of better road safety is indisputable.
For those who are reluctant about self-driving cars, I believe it's an issue of time and technological confidence. Personally, I think people will come around as the technology shows promise. It's also interesting to consider how this transformation might finally completely alter the automotive industry. In a future when more people choose self-driving cars, demand for older, manual versions or even possibilities in salvage car sales for aficionados who wish to hang onto classic cars will rise.
I have seen them testing some self-driving Uber cars in Chile. I agree with most people here - it has a lot of pros. I like that I wouldn't have to worry about if my driver is responsible, experienced and doesn't drive like a maniac. I would also love if all cars became self-driving so that there would be less terrible drivers on the road - especially where I live now. But I do also fear the glitches and bugs that are bound to happen with any automated system. Also, this leaves more opportunities for people to hack the systems and take control of the cars. In today's world, what would stop a group of terrorists from creating a massive event with a huge auto hack? But maybe that's my paranoia : ) I'm very interested to see how this technology unfolds into the real life market and what kinds of safeguards they will implement to prevent accidents and hacking.
米国Self-driving car is still way far complicated and intricate for me to understand the concept behind this technology. However, sitting in a car driven by an Artificial Intelligence will soon come true since many giants in the high-tech world such as Google and Tesla have been testing this sci-fi inspired technology for years and now are in the final stage of the finishing up process. While there are rising opinions against this innovation, I still think that people should be more open to welcoming any innovations like this one at every stage of the technological development. Not only does it make our lives easier, but also is the precursor of a new era in the history of transportation.
On the one hand, self-driving car is considered one of the safest vehicles because of its well-known robotics control system, that statistically makes only one mistake in 10000. When driving under bad weather conditions, an Artificial Intelligence can surely make better decisions than does a human since its decision is processed immediately, even faster than the blink of an eye, via sophisticated digital algorithms eliminating potential accidents on the road to the lowest level. Furthermore, people will have spare time for other personal activities and thereby the driving task will not be as tedious as it is now. Imagine a prospect that you are reading a favorite book and enjoying a cup of cappuccino for a new day while driving to work. Or you can take a nap any time while driving a long distance for a family picnic. It's so cool, isn't it? One more advantage of this new technology is that it has the potential in controlling traffic more effectively. When every vehicle on the road is powered by robot drivers that always obey the rules and get real-time updates on current traffic of each route, we don't necessarily spend hours in cars because of the so-called traffic jam. I feel like the weight off my mind and so do other car drivers.
On the other hand, self-driving technology has a variety of setbacks that car manufacturers should take into account before commercializing these vehicles. The first and also the most important one is security issue. Although the accuracy of computer calculating is high, no one can make sure it is still working perfectly fine when dealing with digital intruders who are able to hack into the installed artificial intelligence and take over control. People may think it is just a popular scene in a sci-fi movie, but it could be real to you or your family either. Another weakness of self-driving car is that it is merely a smart machine with the ability to learn and make decision, but at the end of the day it still lacks the cognitive process that is only presented in human beings. Cognitive process is very complicated to be simulated on a machine. Sometimes, this process involves emotion, intuition and instinct that explains why people feel safer and even better when sitting in a car with a human driver. Last but not least, this technology might exacerbate the sedentary life style of a considerable amount of people around the globe.
In conclusion, the fact that everything has two sides is always true and it mainly depends on what perspective people are standing on. Even self-driving car is one of the most wonderful innovations of the 21st century, but it has both advantages and disadvantages, that has been invoking so many arguments in the tech community. From my viewpoint, I still think self-driving car is good innovation since it makes our lives easier. However, car manufacturers should have a way to rectify all the drawbacks of this new technology before making it become a commercial product.
